Bitcoin Halving: What to Expect in 2024
title: "Bitcoin Halving: What to Expect in 2024" author: "Alex Kim" date: "Nov 5, 2025" category: "Markets" image: "/uploads/Building the Future_ Practical Steps for Blockchain Adoption in Africa.jpg"
The Bitcoin halving is one of the most-watched events in the cryptocurrency calendar. Historically, halvings — where the block reward given to miners is cut in half — have had notable effects on miner economics and, indirectly, price dynamics.
Historical Halving Performance
| Halving | Date | Pre-Halving Price | Post-Halving Peak | Time to Peak | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Nov 2012 | $12 | $1,150 | 1.2 years | +9,500% |
| 2nd | Jul 2016 | $650 | $19,800 | 1.4 years | +2,946% |
| 3rd | May 2020 | $8,600 | $64,800 | 1.8 years | +654% |
| 4th | Apr 2024 | $69,000 | $105,000* | 0.3 years* | +52%* |
What a halving actually does
Technically, a halving reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created. This changes the supply schedule and can increase scarcity if demand stays constant or rises. Miners receive fewer BTC for the same work, which can result in short-term selling pressure as miners adjust operations.
Supply Impact Analysis
Annual BTC Supply Growth Rate
Before: 6.25 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day × 365 days ÷ 21M total supply
After: 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day × 365 days ÷ 21M total supply
This reduction in supply growth rate has historically correlated with increased scarcity and price appreciation.
Historical context
Past halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) have preceded significant bull runs, although correlation is not causation. Market structure, macro conditions, and network fundamentals vary with each cycle.
Market Cycle Timeline
Risks and considerations
- Increased miner centralization risk if smaller miners become unprofitable.
- Short-term volatility around the halving date as market participants position.
- Macroeconomic factors (interest rates, liquidity) that can overpower supply-driven effects.
- Regulatory developments that may impact adoption and price.
Key Metrics to Monitor
Hash Rate Trends
Miner participation and computing power dedicated to Bitcoin mining.
Difficulty Adjustments
Network automatically adjusts mining difficulty every 2 weeks to maintain 10-minute block times.
Exchange Reserves
BTC held on exchanges vs. long-term holder accumulation.
On-Chain Activity
Transaction volumes, active addresses, and exchange inflows/outflows.
In short, halvings alter supply dynamics and are an important variable for market participants to consider — but they are one of many factors that determine price action. Successful navigation requires understanding both technical fundamentals and market psychology.